(Notes
on the analysis of the present day)
In
late 1998 we saw signs of an economic crisis in some Asian countries, including
Korea, Japan and Indonesia. There were talks of a financial crisis then. Some
data concerning those days were as follows:
In
late 1997, activities in the South Korean stock market were dropped by 33 per
cent, and its currency was devalued by 40 per cent.
In
Japan, bad debts of financial institutions reached 860 billion dollars. The fall
in the Hong Kong stock market was 19-21 per cent, while it was 44-45 per cent in
the Philippines and 45 per cent in Thailand.
Asian
tigers suddenly turned into tame cats.
Globalisation
of the economy made it possible to spread this situation into other areas.
However,
the US economy was going through a fine period then, and as a driving force this
had an effect on the world economy: on the one hand, it prevented the crisis in
Asia from becoming a prolonged and destructive one, and on the other, it limited
its effects on other areas, and even encouraged the birth of some signs of a
recovery.
At
present we are going through once again a new difficult period of the capitalist
system. Moreover, this time the US economy itself is affected heavily by this
crisis. Since last year it has been in recession, and what happens in this
country has an effect on the whole world through globalisation.
Under
the present conditions finance capital and stock markets have a dominant
position on economic processes. A speculative economy is being imposed. There
are 40 billion dollars in circulation without any contributions to the
productive sector. 33 per cent of the world capitalisation is taking place in
the US. That is the reason why the problems manifest themselves more heavily in
this country.
Although
it is true that the growth in US economy pump up the demand within the highly
qualified working people, this same situation is also at the root of other
problems: we witness, in the meantime, a decrease in the demand of unqualified
or low qualified workers, a drop in real wages and the exclusion of 25-30
million people from any kind of distribution relations.
In
this century, while the top 1 per cent of the population appropriated 62 per
cent of the whole wealth created, the bottom 80 per cent benefited only from 1
per cent of it.
This
situation requires drawing attention to the following points:
There
are various data showing that American families are buying less. This in turn
shows that trade activity (demand) is shrunk and the production activity
(supply) is retarded. In their statements to the El Pais newspaper two
stock market analysts point out that the Americans are in debt up to their necks
and have no idea about their repayment. This situation has come to such a
serious level that the Congress is discussing a bill in an effort to find a
solution for those who cannot repay their debt and thus who are deprived of new
credits.
Companies
with no good sales are unable to repay their bank credits, and they lay off
their employees. This in turn results in falling consumption, giving an injury
to economic development. In the first quarter of this year, 400 thousand people
were made redundant in the US. This is a 187 per cent rise compared to the same
period of last year.
The
governor of the American Federal Bank had to make great effort to convince those
sectors demanding a restriction in the imports. Such a measure would have
negative effect on foreign economies and lead to a more severe worldwide
economic recession.
The
problems are getting bigger everywhere. Having put aside neoliberalism to which
it was tied in an orthodox manner, in addition to other measures Japanese
government has bought shares of 87 billion dollars in value in an effort to
rescue the troubled financial sector. European countries are dropping the level
of interest rates in an effort to encourage investments. Argentine, Brazil and
Chile are faced with severe problems. “Mad cow” and “foot and mouth”
diseases have shaken the Argentine economy which has a strong animal farming
sector; while the other two have been affected by this due to their Mercosur
regional economic relations.
2- We went through similar situations in 1973, 1974, 1979, 1987, 1990,
1998-99, the latest being in 2001. This shows the spasmodic character of the
crisis of capitalism. It also shows that the periods of boom are getting shorter
and shorter, and that neoliberalism cannot rescue capitalism from its crises.
3-
One cannot talk about a worldwide economic recession yet. However, like October
1929, there are more than enough factors that could lead to such a situation.
4-
The present situation has in many ways parallels with 1929:
I-
Just like all typical crises, economic boom periods continue to exist too. The
US economy has just left behind the longest boom period of the last few decades.
This
is being experienced following a period dominated by liberal policies. Prior to
1929, liberal policies were being implemented too, which were later replaced by
Keynesian policies. At present, too, (neo)liberal policies are being
implemented.
Just
like today, in 1929 too, there were talks about the formation of a new economy
with endurance to a crisis. Industrial line production, fordism that was
existent prior to 1929, had been presented as a new economy and a great
revolution in production. Today, on the basis of scientific and technologic
revolution, it is again suggested that a new economy has been formed.
All
this emphasises once again the significance of the Marxist theory on the
inevitable crisis of capitalism.
On
the other hand, there exist suitable factors for the work for an alternative
movement against capitalism to remobilise and go on the offensive again. This
system which has set up its hegemony across the world without a
counter-balancing force can prevent neither political and social tensions nor
the spasmodic crisis of capitalism. Even at present, there are political
tensions in all continents; and the rivalry and friction between great economic
powers manifest itself in various forms. 1.3 billion people live in absolute
poverty, while 800 million people have no jobs.
Today irrationalism is at its height. According to the UN figures, for
universal minimum education opportunities 6 billion dollars is needed, but it
cannot be found! However, in the meantime in the USA, 8 billion dollars is spent
every year on cosmetic products! Europeans spend 11 billion dollars annually
just on ice cream. However, 9 billion dollars that could supply the whole world
with clean drinking water cannot be found. Armament costs the world 780 billion
dollars every year, but 12 billion dollars that could provide all women of the
world with maternity facilities cannot be found!
Consequently,
there exist suitable conditions for revolutionary propaganda. If we put it
theoretically, this is a revolutionary moment. The antagonism between capitalist
relations of production and social production forces is ever deeper. Capitalism
had never reached the present capacity of the production of goods and services,
nor had it ever produced so much poverty and misery.
II-
Parallel to this situation is the rising struggle of the working people. Popular
struggles in Latin America are getting a more systematic and mass character.
Like in Nicaragua, Venezuela, Uruguay, Ecuador and Brazil the Left is taking
important political steps. In the very developed countries themselves, huge
demonstrations have been organised (like in Seattle, Davos, etc.), setting a
blow on neoliberal globalisation.
Of
course, it is not possible yet to suggest that a revolutionary socialist
tendency has its stamp on these struggles which have been developing under the
conditions of this crisis of neoliberal capitalism. However, it is also certain
that we are no longer in that one-sided darkness which, not long ago, was the
dominant atmosphere in those days of the collapse of the Berlin Wall, which had
Fukuyama suggesting “the end of the world”, and which saw many abandoning
the path of revolution and socialism.
We
have an optimistic vision of the possibilities of the formation of our ideals
once again, of cadres and the revolutionary movement. We have the objective
conditions which are getting better and which require the solutions proposed by
the subjective elements.
Having
this optimistic vision, we can and must fulfil the tasks that are placed on the
shoulders of our movement. I would like to touch, even though in a general way,
upon some problems that we need to overcome immediately, so we can utilise the
opportunities before us. The Dominican Left must rid itself of the following
three deadly burdens: Firstly, the general belief that we are the
defenders and the continuation of the regime which has failed in Eastern Europe;
secondly, the general idea that division is in our blood; and thirdly,
the idea that protesting is our reason for existence, and that politics and
political power is the work of the right. We must change these impressions.
In
this framework, my proposals for consideration are as follows:
1-
We need to put forward a social project to win over the workers and popular
masses in general. We must give special importance to scientific research and
theoretical work to do that. In the same way as Lenin did in analysing the
imperialist stage of capitalism, we must use the universal principles of
scientific Marxism to answer the questions of the present day.
2-
Under these conditions, it becomes more important to carry out the propaganda
work for the education of the workers and other working people with the spirit
of revolution and socialism, and for a systematic exposure of capitalism as a
system of exploitation which harms humanity and causes social and ecological
problems.
3-
It is of great importance that we fight against the ideas and values imposed on
society by the ruling classes in order to break their influence, against those
one and the same forces who, like in our country, control the economy, the media
and the state, and who create an almost useless information market under the
conditions of extreme poverty.
4-
We need to establish strong links with the workers and popular masses and take
fresh steps for an uncompromising defence of their rights and interests.
5-
In order to achieve unity we must act with historical responsibility. Listening
to each other, respecting the differences, being tolerant, and having a position
which is based on the struggle for concrete daily demands without losing sight
of the ultimate goals, and on a step by step formation of a united, mass
revolutionary project... This is the position which will form unity, and it
involves all sorts of efforts such as election work, struggle for general
reforms, work for a constitutional assembly, or for the formation of a broad
united front aiming to unite all sections of society against imperialism.
6-
It is necessary that we consider all these efforts with a logic going from the
simplest to the most complex, and starting with local administrations in the way
to seizing power.
Manuel
Salazar
Communist Labour Party of
Dominican Republic (PCT)